Australian Scientists Develop Groundbreaking Satellite Tech to Predict Bushfires

A team of scientists at a leading Australian university is developing a groundbreaking satellite technology to measure the flammability of eucalypt forests from space. The innovative OzFuel project aims to provide critical data for bushfire planning and response, reducing Australia's reliance on foreign-owned satellites.

World-first technology

Eucalypt forests are among the most flammable in the world, responsible for devastating wildfires in Australia and overseas. Predicting where these fires are most likely to start and how they may propagate comes down to the complex biochemistry in the eucalypt leaves.

Marta Yebra, director of the Bushfire Research Centre of Excellence and leader of the OzFuel project, explained that there is no single variable that determines how flammable a eucalypt is. "There is no single variable that determines how flammable a eucalypt is," she said. "One of the properties is moisture content, but there are other chemical components like oil content, cellulose and lignin," Professor Yebra said. "These all make the leaves more flammable."

The OzFuel team has analysed thousands of eucalypt leaf samples to determine which wavelengths in the infrared spectrum can detect key chemical compounds and other flammability traits. Initial experiments in collaboration with the CSIRO have investigated how these traits influence fire behaviour.

Overcoming technical challenges

At the Mount Stromlo research facility in Canberra, the same instruments used by astronomers to observe distant planets have been adapted to make Earth observations from space. Rob Sharp, director of the Advanced Instrumentation Technology Centre, leads the development of a purpose-built infrared telescope for the OzFuel project.

"We've demonstrated that we can make the concept work in the laboratory," he said. "We're now at the stage from a technical perspective where we're looking to test it for viability on a spacecraft, and then attach it to a small satellite and get the prototype up in orbit."

Funding and investment

However, until the technology is proven in space with a pathfinder mission, it is difficult to attract investment from the commercial sector. ANU Institute for Space director Anna Moore estimated the OzFuel pathfinder mission, which could be ready to launch in 18 months, would cost around $15 million. But for now, the project is on hold.

"You want that funding pipeline to be seamless," she said. "When a project like this is on hold, you not only lose key staff who hold the intellectual property that makes this a reality in the first place, you also lose momentum."

National security implications

Australia's dependence on foreign-owned satellite data in natural disasters was highlighted in a recent report. Stuart Phinn, from the University of Queensland's School of the Environment, said that Earth observation data are a critical piece of Australia's national security infrastructure for disaster preparedness and response.

"If we don't act on this now, we're gradually going to lose that capability, and we're going to have to spend a lot more money buying in data and having potentially unreliable data and data that's not fit for Australian environments or Australian applications," he said.

Conclusion

As Australia braces for an El Niño summer and the cost of natural disasters continues to escalate, Professor Yebra said investing in prevention had a multiplier effect. "There are lots of studies that broadly [indicate] that in natural disasters, $1 invested in prevention results in $10 of benefits in the damage that is avoided," she said. "Over the next 30 years, we could save more than $8.5 billion if we have more investment in technologies that can provide information that is useful to plan rather than react to bushfires."